Acquire at 8.0x EBITDA (€80.0m), funded 61% debt / 39% equity; exit after 5 years at 8.0x, for 20.6% IRR, 2.55x MoM.
Returns
- IRR
- 20.6%Base case
- MoM
- 2.55xBase case
- Equity invested
- €31.6mBase case
- Equity at exit
- €80.7mBase case
Entry leverage 5.0x, Year-1 interest coverage 3.0x
Sources & Uses
| Uses | €m |
|---|---|
| Purchase price (EV) | 80.0 |
| Transaction fees | 1.6 |
| Total uses | 81.6 |
| Sources | €m |
|---|---|
| Debt | 50.0 |
| Equity | 31.6 |
| Total sources | 81.6 |
Debt paydown
| Year | Debt | Cash | Leverage (debt / EBITDA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 5.0x |
| Year 1 | 46.4 | 0.0 | 4.4x |
| Year 2 | 42.4 | 0.0 | 3.8x |
| Year 3 | 37.7 | 0.0 | 3.2x |
| Year 4 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 2.6x |
| Year 5 | 26.4 | 0.0 | 2.0x |
Value creation bridge
Percentages show each step’s share of the value created (€49.1m in this case). Figures may not sum due to rounding.
| Step | €m | Share of value created |
|---|---|---|
| Equity invested | 31.6 | |
| EBITDA growth | 27.1 | 55% |
| Multiple expansion | – | |
| Debt paydown | 23.6 | 48% |
| Fees | (1.6) | −3% |
| Equity at exit | 80.7 |
Sensitivity
Entry
Exit
| Entry multiple by exit multiple | Exit 7.0x | Exit 7.5x | Exit 8.0x | Exit 8.5x | Exit 9.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry 7.0x | |||||
| Entry 7.5x | |||||
| Entry 8.0x | |||||
| Entry 8.5x | |||||
| Entry 9.0x |
Each cell re-runs the full model with only the two multiples changed. Shading compares each cell with the centre of the grid: green higher, red lower. The outlined cell is the current case; select another to apply its multiples.
Projection
| €m | Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 50.0 | 53.0 | 56.2 | 59.6 | 63.1 | 66.9 |
| EBITDA | 10.0 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 13.4 |
| EBITDA margin | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| D&A | (1.6) | (1.7) | (1.8) | (1.9) | (2.0) | |
| EBIT | 9.0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | |
| Interest | (3.5) | (3.3) | (3.0) | (2.6) | (2.3) | |
| EBT | 5.5 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | |
| Tax | (1.7) | (1.9) | (2.1) | (2.4) | (2.7) | |
| Net income | 3.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 6.4 | |
| D&A (add-back) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
| Capex | (1.6) | (1.7) | (1.8) | (1.9) | (2.0) | |
| ΔNWC | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.3) | (0.4) | (0.4) | |
| FCF | 3.6 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 6.0 | |
| Debt (end of year) | 50.0 | 46.4 | 42.4 | 37.7 | 32.4 | 26.4 |
| Cash | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Leverage | 5.0x | 4.4x | 3.8x | 3.2x | 2.6x | 2.0x |
| Interest coverage | 3.0x | 3.5x | 4.0x | 4.8x | 5.9x |
Figures may not sum due to rounding.